Evaluation of the project based on the theory of fuzzy sets and the concept of fuzzy logic. Method and methodology

Objectives. The work sets out to develop a method and methodology for evaluating project activities, including research and development work. The development of this method and its associated methodology is relevant due to the need to provide an analytical assessment of a project based on its main performance indicators, such as the uniqueness of the results and the resources required to produce them. This assessment must take into account both the requirements of the customer and the capabilities of the prospective performers to make an informed decision on its formulation. Currently, the best-known methods for evaluating a planned project are based on economic efficiency. However, the approaches taken by customers and contractors are often different and sometimes contradictory. For example, a customer may minimize the risk of failing to achieve the project goal by setting appropriate requirements and resource costs, while a contractor minimizes the same risks by increasing the requested time and material resources, as well as by adjusting the requirement criteria for the project results, which are based on their ability to fulfill them. The concept of fuzzy sets allows various assessment approaches to be combined to provide informed and coordinated decision-making regarding the feasibility and expediency of setting up and executing a project.
Methods. The developed method and methodology for project evaluation are based on the theory of fuzzy sets and the concept of fuzzy logic, using membership functions to model project parameter estimates.
Results. The project assessment method and implementation methodology were developed, taking into account customer requirements and the capabilities of the potential contractor, to enable rational decision-making regarding its formulation.
Conclusions. The method may be applied to establish the optimal requirements and conditions for project implementation in a balanced manner. In contrast to expert methods, the presented analytical method and methodology provide a higher objectivity of the generalized assessment, validity, and effectiveness in making and implementing managerial decisions. The methodology’s universal criteria and procedures make it suitable for application to various kinds of assessment and in various areas of project activity, including research and development work.

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