Probabilistic characteristics analysis of virus attack effect on digital substations

Objectives. This study aims to create analytical methods for evaluating the probabilistic safety characteristics of information and software elements in digital substations in order to ensure security in different virus scenarios.

Methods. The methods of reliability theory, random process theory, and recovery theory were used.

Results. The derived integral ratios were further used to estimate the probability characteristics of information processing security when performing functional tasks in various scenarios of attacks on digital substations, as well as multiple technologies used for protection against such threats. Numerical studies of safe information processing probability of different intensities of attacks and times of their activation were conducted, in order to consider the frequency of diagnostics of the system by the service personnel and customer requirements for the safe operation of the system in a certain period. We performed calculations for various protection technologies against similar attacks on digital substations. A protection technology with system diagnostic deterministic frequency can support customer requirements in the event of accidental and relatively rare virus attacks. Security technologies consider different maintenance personnel operation modes to ensure customer fulfillment requirements for safe information processing probability and the case of deliberate attacks on digital substations in each period.

Conclusions. The technologies considered herein for information protection from attacks on digital substations can provide the necessary level of information security system operation for all types of threats. These technologies can be applied when the system diagnostics frequency increases from twice an hour to at least once every 25 minutes. Our findings underline the importance of timely monitoring of ever-changing attack environments for digital substations.

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